After 41 years, RBI sees GDP shrinking

印度储备银行：印度经济预计将出现近41年来的首次萎缩

NEW DELHI: The Indian economy is expected to contract for the first time in nearly 41 years, while the outlook for inflation remains uncertain, Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI’s) assessment of the economic situation showed on Friday. RBI governor Shaktikanta Das said, “It is in the growth outlook that the MPC (monetary policy committee) judged the risks to be gravest.

印度储备银行(RBI)周五发布的经济形势评估报告显示，印度经济预计出现近41年来的首次萎缩，而通胀前景仍不明朗。印度储备银行行长沙克提坎塔·达斯说，货币政策委员会认为印度经济增长前景的风险最大。

The combined impact of demand compression and supply disruption will depress economic activity in the first half of the year. Assuming economic activity gets restored in a phased manner, especially in second half of this year, and taking into consideration favourable base effects, it is expected that the combination of fiscal, monetary and administrative measures being currently undertaken would create conditions for a gradual revival in activity in second half of 2020-21.” 

需求压缩和供应中断的综合影响将抑制上半年的经济活动。假设经济活动以阶段性方式恢复，特别是在今年下半年，并考虑到有利的基数效应，预计目前正在采取的财政、货币和行政措施的组合将为2020-21年下半年经济活动的逐步复苏创造条件。“

“Nonetheless, downside risks to this assessment are significant and contingent upon the containment of the pandemic and quick phasing out of social distancing/lockdowns. Given all these uncertainties, GDP growth in 2020-21is estimated to remain in negative territory, with some pick-up in growth impulses from H2: 2020-21onward,” said Das. 

“尽管如此，这项评估的下行风险是重大的，而且取决于疫情的控制和社会距离/封锁的迅速消除。考虑到所有这些不确定性，2020-21年度的GDP增长估计仍将处于负值区域，从H2：2020-21开始的增长动力将有所回升，“Das说。

If the contraction as forecast by the RBI and also by other economists is realised, it will be the first contraction for Asia’s third-largest economy since 1979-80, when GDP growth shrank 5.2%. 

如果印度央行和其他经济学家预测的收缩成为现实，这将是这个亚洲第三大经济体自1979-80年GDP增长萎缩5.2%以来的首次收缩。

Several investment banks, brokerages and economists have predicted the economic growth to remain flat or contract in the range of 1.5% to 6.8%. IMF’s April estimate, however, showed that India and China will be the only countries to display growth, while the rest will contract. Das said domestic economic activity has been impacted severely by the lockdown. 

几家投资银行、券商和经济学家预测，经济增长将持平或收缩在1.5%至6.8%的范围内。然而，国际货币基金组织4月份的估计显示，印度和中国将是唯一出现增长的国家，而其他国家将收缩。达斯说，国内经济活动受到封锁的严重影响。

The top six industrialised states, that account for about 60% of the industrial output, are largely in red or orange zones. High frequency indicators point to a collapse in demand beginning in March 2020 across both urban and rural segments, he said, adding that the robust farm sector and predictions of healthy monsoon rains augured well for the rural economy. 

占工业产出约60%的前六个工业化州大多位于红色或橙色区域。他表示，高频指标表明，从2020年3月开始，城市和农村地区的需求都将崩溃。他补充称，强劲的农业部门和对健康季风雨的预测对农村经济来说是个好兆头。

The RBI governor also highlighted the precarious condition of the global economy, saying that by all counts, the macroeconomic and financial conditions are austere. The global economy is inexorably headed into recession, he said. Das said MPC assessed that the inflation outlook is highly uncertain. 

这位印度央行行长还强调了全球经济的不稳定状况，称从所有方面来看，宏观经济和金融状况都很严峻。他表示，全球经济正不可避免地走向衰退。Das称，MPC评估通胀前景高度不确定。

“The supply shock to food prices in April may show persistence over the next few months, depending upon the state of lockdown and the time taken to restore supply chains after relaxation.” “Much will depend on shape of the recovery after Covid. 

“4月对食品价格的供应冲击可能在未来几个月表现出持续性，这取决于封锁状态，以及放松后恢复供应链所需的时间.”“这在很大程度上将取决于新冠疫情之后的复苏情况。

Accordingly, MPC is of the view that headline inflation may remain firm in first half of 2020-21, but should ease in the second half, aided also by favourable base effects. By Q3 and Q4 of FY20-21, it is expected to fall below target. Thus, the MPC’s forward guidance on inflation is directional rather than in terms of levels.” 

因此，货币政策委员会认为，总体通胀可能在2020-21年上半年保持坚挺，但在有利的基数效应的帮助下，下半年应该会有所缓解。到20-21财年第三季度和第四季度，预计将降至目标以下。因此，货币政策委员会对通胀的前瞻性指引是有方向性的，而不是从水平上说的。“

以下是印度时报读者的评论：

Syed

Govt has no clue what they are doing and media is also not transplant and fear that they get targeted....

印度政府不知道自己在做什么

Dsh•Bangalore

GDP Shrinking, Indian are Shriking after Demonitizations. All polices of Panic Master (PM)

印度国内生产总值萎缩，废钞令发布后，经济出现萎缩。

Perminder

covid has became a shield otherwise everything was already collapssing

有疫情罩着，否则一切都已经崩溃了

Sujith696

We have a central govt that has no clue. There was no demand even before the pandemic and it just worsened due to the pandemic. The solution the govt has instead of getting demand up is to give loans. Why would companies take loans when there is no point producing goods that no one is buying?? They say become atma nirbhar but they increase FDI in defence from 49% to 75%. Yeah sure we might as well sell off our defence units to foreign entities. Crude is selling at around 20 dollars but petrol is still at 75 rupees. This is the most hypocritical go nment we have ever seen but the bhakts still paint a rosy picture.

我们的中央政府对此毫无头绪。其实在疫情爆发之前，需求就疲软，疫情爆发后，需求进一步疲软了。

印度政府的解决办法不是增加需求，而是发放贷款。

既然没人会消费，企业为什么要贷款开动生产线，生产出来的产品卖给谁?

原油售价已经降到20美元每桶，而国内汽油价格仍为75卢比每升。

印度这届政府是我们见过最虚伪的

Ram bhakt

So the GDP of India has only fallen when RSS leaders are running the go nment. Coincidence? Nah!!!

只有右翼领导人上台后，印度GDP才下降。难道这是巧合？

Gaana User

This strted after the illogical move of demonetisation which even modi sarkar know but wont accept till the judgement day ... modi hain toh mumkin hain

不合理的废钞令发布后，印度GDP才萎缩的。莫迪明明知道，就不愿意承认

Arjunw

Economy was going in negative territory since demonitization ' covid further deteriorated it

自从货币政策被妖魔化后，印度经济形势进一步恶化，出现了负增长

Ak

Our economy was already in ICU due to DEMONETIZATION and faulty GST implementation since Nov 2016. And now a big blow due to mismanaged Corona lockdown has put our economy on VENTILATORS. Everyday our FM who is best suited as Marketing Executive and our bureaucrat turned RBI head is trying to give SOME OXYGEN to revive the MORBID ECONOMY.

自2016年11月起，废钞令的发布，以及商品服务税的实施，造成我们经济出现了大问题。

这次爆发疫情，封城对经济更是雪上加霜。

每天，最适合担任营销主管的印度外交部长，和由官僚摇身一变当上印度储备银行行长，都在努力为病态的经济注入一些活力。

Jagdip Vaishnav

THIS IS WELL EXPECTED SINCE LAST 1 YEAR.

早在一年前就意料到了

Doshi Jenish

It's only due to this pandemic, and hope all nations press WHO to find the root origin country of this crisis and punish monetarily to recover money and distribute among severly infected countries

经济萎缩是疫情造成的

希望各国施压世卫组织，找出病毒来源国，开出罚款，然后分给受疫情影响严重的国家

Chandra

These calculations will prove to be wrong..yes..growth will be down but it will not be so less..It will pickup and remains to around 3.5 to 4..far better than expected..we will come out from this crisis soon and will succeed..Be optimistic...

没那么严重啦。经济是会萎缩，不过不会那么严重。

萎缩后是反弹，3.5%至4%的增速，比预期好多了。

我们很快就会走出这场危机的。大家要保持乐观…

外文链接：https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/after-41-yrs-rbi-sees-gdp-shrinking/articleshow/75908358.cms